Friday, January 30, 2015

2027 OFF SEASON - Part 1

     The upcoming 2027 season was going to be a very pivotal season in Mets history. Six long time Mets stars have their contracts ending and the greatest period in New York Mets history is entering its closing act.
     There are a handful of aging superstars playing for their last contract. How many of them would end their career in New York? Who would rise to the pressure of the contract season and who's body would let them down?


     The most important of these Mets stars is 34yo Montes Scalfaro, the greatest New York Met in history. He's been the face of the franchise for the last decade plus and has a strong case for being the best overall catcher in the history of baseball. He already has more home runs as a catcher than anyone in the game and is closing in on most hits and rbis for a catcher.

     The San Marino import is the epitome of first-ballot HOFer and is often called the 'Real Mr Met'. His number 30 jersey is the standard birthday present for every 11-year old Mets fan.
     Montes Scalfaro will turn 35 in November and is coming off an injury shortened season. A fractured foot in May kept him out of the line up for almost half the season, leading to career lows in hits, home runs and rbis. Despite the loss of 2+ months, he still hit his 400th career home run and collected his 2000th hit.

     The story of how he arrived in New York is now legend. The grandson of the long time office cleaning lady at Shea Stadium, he was drafted as a favor to the retiring woman in the 21st round in the 2010 draft. A very raw talent, he was the first (and still only) player from San Marino drafted. The small European nation has a population of 25000 and the odds it would produce one of the best catchers of all time are astronomical.

     His first season in the minors showed that he had a good eye, but little power.  How he learned to hit for power is another great story. One, he returned home in 2013 for the first time during off-season to San Marino and put on 20 pounds of muscle working the family farm. Two, Greasy Robinson. He was the New Orleans hitting coach who changed his stroke and turned him into a power hitter, as well being able to hit over 300.
     In 2014, their paths crossed in New Orleans, home to the Mets AAA team. He fixed the catchers' swing and soon the balls started flying out of the park.
     His first four seasons in the minors he hit 6 home runs in almost 700 at bats, in 2014 he hit 25 in under 500 at bats. He ended that year being called up to New York in time for September and the post season. He hit two home runs in 34 at bats in Flushing playing behind veteran Geovany Soto.

     In the 2015 off season, the Mets didn't even pursue Soto and they let him become a free agent. The front office was sure they had found their new catcher in Scalfaro. All he did in his first full season was win the Rookie Supreme Award unanimously.
     He hit 350/419/614 with 35 home runs, 110 rbis and 102 runs scored and made his first All Star game. Mets fans everywhere fell in love with him as did the press; his accent and model good looks made him instantly marketable. Scalfaroma swept the city. It is said that he could remove a woman's panties at 30 feet with his smile alone. He is the Mets' Derek Jeter in more ways than one.

     2027 will be his 14th season in the majors, the 9-time All Star is still the best catcher in the game and has a mantle full of hardware. Three Gold Gloves (2020, 22, 24), a pair of Ted Williams Award (2017, 22), a Rookie Supreme (2015) and, most importantly, a pair of World Series rings (2022, 24) all in a Mets uniform.
     He is so popular that when the Mets needed to add another rookie level team, they located the team in his home town as thanks. The San Marino Mets of the rookie level Old Lands League began play in 2022 when minor league baseball expanded to Europe.
     Scalfaro has never been a vocal leader, he prefers to lead by example and his bat. It's no surprise that the Mets have been in the playoffs in 11 of his 13 seasons.
     The catcher will hit in the clean up spot behind Ralph Smith for another season, adding to his Hall of Fame resume, slowly gaining on Jose Reyes on the Mets All Time leader board in at bats, runs, hits, total bases, singles and doubles. Scalfaro ranks second in all those categories behind Reyes.


[I know you may want to call shenanigans on me, but I will testify in court that I have never changed any internal player numbers in the game. I know the odds on me getting a franchise defining player are about the same that he would be born in San Marino, but hell, even the Mets get lucky once in a while.]


     The next big question is about their pitching star Jud Williamson. The second best Mets pitcher in franchise history, behind only Tom Seaver. He will be entering his 16th season in a Mets uniform and is tied with Tom Seaver for most wins as a Mets pitcher (198). The 2027 season should see the veteran lefty hit some big milestones. First up is 200 wins (needs 2) and then 3000th strikeout (needs 49). No pitcher has ever reached those milestones wholly in a Mets' uniform.

     The Ohio farm boy was acquired by the Mets via trade with the Dodgers in 2011 in an exchange of minor league players. The Dodgers got third baseman Blake Dewitt, who would be lost at the end of the 2011 season to the Rule 5 Draft and never got a major league at bat in a Dodgers uniform.
     The Mets got a number 1 pitcher with better than average stuff and control. Since 2013 he's started at least 20 games a season and struck out 200 in a season nine times, including four times in a row twice, topping out at a career high with 260.

     Williamson won a Walter Johnson Award (2014) when he went 20-7 with a 3.20 era at the tender age of 24, and finished second in 2022, in what was arguably a better season. 17-8 2.76era 260k 0.97whip. A six time All Star, he also holds many Mets playoff records.
     His 35 postseason starts, 14 wins, 214 innings and 206 ks are all tops in franchise history, he's had two monster playoffs that coincide with the Mets' World Series victories. (4-1 2.72era in 2022) and (6-0 1.31era in 2024, where he had three complete games and won the MVP of the WS & Playoffs). He's 4-10 with a era of 6.02 in the other 9 seasons.

     Where Montes Scalfaro is a quiet leader, Williamson is anything but. Very vocal, he has been the captain of the pitching staff for almost a decade, even when he ended up in the pen, which happened at the end of 2019-early 2020. Since winning 16 games in 2023, he's won 12, 13 and went 14-15 last season with his highest era in eight seasons (4.26).
     He is adored in NYC, he lives under a mile from the stadium and walks to every game. Williamson jokes that since "I've sent many a ball out to that area to die", that he wants to be buried under the apple in centerfield. He is the Mets all time leader in home runs allowed.



     The next up is Shawn Fisher. The flip side to Williamson. Right-handed, quiet and an outstanding fielder, they've spent nine years in the rotation together and won a combined 275 games since 2017.
     Nicknamed 'Evil Twin' (he looks like Williamson, just with a goatee) he has become the Mets ace over the last couple of years, but it looks likes this may be his last season in a Mets uniform. Both won't be back next season, one of them will be gone, and Fisher makes the most sense.

      Drafted in the 20th round in 2012 by the San Francisco Giants, the Mets got him in a trade in 2014 for major league starter Cisco Rodriguez. In 2015 he spent the year at three levels, ending the season in New Orleans. He made it to the majors at the end of 2017, winning the only game he appeared in.
     His first season in the rotation as a full starter was 2019 and he responded by going 19-7 with a 2.77era. Since that season, Fisher has averaged 35 starts, 235 innings and 16 wins, twice winning 20 games. He became just the second Mets pitcher to win 20 or more games multiple times, 21-5 in 2023 and 20-7 in 2025. The other, Tom Seaver.
     He won the Walter Johnson Award in 2023 with his 21-5 season. He had an era of 2.74, whip of 1.02 and opp avg of 216, all career bests; and 29 of his 34 starts were quality starts. In 2025 he went 20-7 with a 3.30 era and a league high 12 complete games and 4 shutouts.

     Fisher has been the more reliable pitcher in the playoffs, he's won at least one game in seven straight playoff seasons and is 12-8 in 31 starts. With a great season he'll pass Dwight Gooden for third on the Mets career wins, he's 17 behind right now at 140, tied with Jerry Koosman. With a good season he could pass Koosman (1799) & Gooden (1875) in strikeouts, he's at (1667).
     Even if he's not back next year, he'll go down as one of the top 5 Mets pitchers of all time. The Mets are not likely to keep both aging pitchers as they have a young set of arms all fighting their way into the rotation.



     It is not only the starting rotation that might lose some star power. Long time Mets reliever Payton Rushton could hit free agency at the age of 33. The lefty from Canada has been the Mets closer in 3 of the last 4 years (he missed the entire 2025 season with a herniated disc in his back), in those three seasons he has amassed a record of 23-16 112sv 2.40era 217ip 251k.

     Signed by the Mets in 2013 in the 18th round right out of Leaside High School in Toronto. He always had great stuff, mid 90s with a half dozen pitches, but couldn't find the plate until 2018. Then the pitching coach got him to adjust his fingers and altered his arm angle and he went 5-6 37sv 1.26era 1.01whip in Double A Binghamton.
     The next year, in 2019 he went 6-4 5sv 2.42era as a rookie. He spent the next three years in a stacked bullpen as a left handed weapon, twice registering sub 1.50 eras.

     In the spring training of 2023 he won the closers' role, beating out Michael Dyer and John LeBlanc and saved 42 games with a 2.60era; then he turned it up a notch. 9-7 38sv 1.94era .93whip 87k in 2024. An injury in spring training of 2025 caused him to miss the entire season, leading to the Mets searching all season for a closer in their deep bullpen. He returned in 2026 without missing a beat, 10-5 32sv 1.90era 1.05whip 98k in 2026 and finished second in the NL Walter Johnson race.

     Rushton stands atop the Mets all time career ERA leaders (500 innings) with a 2.09 mark. Fifth on the Mets saves list with 126, 48 saves away from third. The two time All-Star looks like a good bet to be resigned and should climb higher on Mets all time lists.



     Another vital part of the bullpen is Michael Dyer, a 32yo rhrp who shines as a set up man. Drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 15th round he spent 3 years moving up to Triple A. In 2018 he was traded to the New York Mets for reliever Felix Moran.
     After a superb season at Double A Binghamton in 2019 (11-2 3sv 2.15era 104.2ip 99k) he made the jump to the majors in 2020. In seven seasons in the majors he has a 24-16 record with 45 saves mostly as a set up man, either the 7th or 8th inning.

     A very similar pitcher to Rushton, mid 90s, great stuff and good control, but right handed. His personality seems more suited for a set up role and has struggled in the closers role. His worst season came in 2025 when he was one of three New York Mets in the closer role. He started the season as the closer and ended up going 3-5 28sv with a 5.11era.
     The year before as a set up man, 2024, was probably his best, 5-0 1 sv 1.92era .93whip. Last season he went 0-4 3.69era in the set up role. He's currently making $4 million a year and will probably want about the same to stay. The Mets have plenty of young arms in the minors and may need their money elsewhere instead of piling up payroll in the pen.



     The final free agent is centerfielder John Brooks. The 33yo righty has been the Mets lead off hitter since 2022, while playing a stellar centerfield.
     A sixth round draft pick by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2011 right out of high school. He worked his way up through the Dodgers minor leagues and got two cups of coffee in 2016 and 2017 before working his way into the starting lineup in 2018.
     He was traded by the Dodgers that winter to the Detroit Tigers and spent three seasons in Motown, saving his best season for his last. He hit 285/393/477 with 25 home runs, 94 rbis, 44 sb and 177 hits, all career highs. He made his first All Star game, won his first Gold Glove that season and finished 8th in the MVP race.

     On November 21, 2021 the Mets acquired Brooks (along with sp Doug Weber) for rf Rich Lee and sp Manuel Martinez. Since the trade he has averaged 20 home runs, 63 rbis, 20 sb, 96 walks and 99 runs in a Mets uniform hitting 246. Not quite what they were expecting when they signed him for 4 years/$83.2 million dollars in 2024.
     He won his second Gold Glove award in 2023 and now had one in each league. In the most recent season he hit 243/347/408 with 23hr 73rbi 111r and 91bb. His salary demands will probably scare away the Mets and he will be on a new team in 2028.


[3.29.27] – The Mets start the season with the rotation of:
Shawn Fisher
Jimmy Fulton
William Gardner
Jud Williamson
Tomas Marquez (who was supposed to be in a fight for a rotation spot in New Orleans, but he won a spot in the big leagues instead at the age of 23)
The starters are rated 10th best in baseball.

The closer is Payton Rushton, 7th best closer in baseball.
The set up men are Mark Sheppard & Carlos Alvarez
Middle relievers are John LeBlanc, Michael Dyer, Doug Spence, Gabriel Valdes is the only lefty in the pen and the long man. They are rated the 2nd best bullpen in baseball.


The starting fielders will be the same as the previous two years.

c- Montes Scalfaro (35), entering his 13th season as Mets, the best catcher in baseball
1b- Ralph Smith (30), entering his 4th season as a Met, best player in the game
2b- Chris Short (28), entering his 6th season as a Met, 8th best second baseman
3b- Chris Caraballo (31), entering his 10th season as a Met, 12th best third baseman
ss- Braeden Pruitt (42), entering his 8th season as a Met, 20th best shortstop
lf- Bailey Finley (27), entering his 5th season as a Met, 18th best left fielder
cf- John Brooks (33), entering his 6th season as a Met, 18th best center fielder
rf- Anibal Gonzalez (27), entering his 3rd season as a Met, 4th best right fielder


The batting order will start
cf-Brooks R
2b-Short R
1b-Smith S
c-Scalfaro S
rf-Gonzalez L
3b-Caraballo R
ss-Pruitt L
lf-Finley L


The bench
c-Miguel Rea
1b-Scott Edgar
1b/3b/ss-John Wyatt
of-Ramiro Gomez, Gene Hayes


The Mets have the 7th best minor league system, with a pair of top 20 talents.
6-Burton Holsinger rf
19-Tomas Marquez sp


The game ranks everything and since there is no east coast bias, or Yankee bias, or small market hatred, these are true rankings. I like to provide these as it gives an idea of the level of the talent.


     Despite being in the same division as the reigning World Series Champions (Washington Nationals), the Mets are the favorite to win the NL East for the fourth time in 6 years. They are a strong bet to return to the playoffs for the 8th straight season and 11th time in 12 years.

     Will the pitching hold up? Both Williamson and Fisher are at the back end of their career (a combined 749 starts) and the other three in the rotation Gardner, Fulton and Marquez have made a combined 35 major league starts. The bullpen is second best in all of baseball and the Mets have the second best closer in the game. The starters are rated 23rd.

     The offense will be strong as they have the best 3-4 hitters in the game. The best hitter in the game (Smith), followed by Scalfaro, the best catcher in the game for the past 10 years. Gonzalez is a rising star in right, Brooks is a multiple Gold Glove winner in centerfield, Short at second is a former all-star, Caraballo at third and Pruitt at short are still solid.

     The duo of Scalfaro and Smith are called 'Death Valley', a nickname they picked up from former Braves manager Wilbur Gibson. He complained about not being able to match up relief pitchers against Scalfaro and Smith as they are both switch hitters and hit back-to-back, with no weak side. Smith hits 344 from each side of the plate, Scalfaro hits 311 from the right side and 314 from the left.

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